Bradford Hill, a scientist born in 1897, developed criteria for determining whether causality in medical treatments exists. It’s striking that his work, which was first used in 1965, is a model for us today in areas outside of medical care.
Our society has become one where misinformation is often thought to be more valid than carefully researched information. Social media, influencers, and even national leaders promote answers where there is no causal basis. Dr. Hill was able to demonstrate the causal connection between cigarette smoking and cancer. But even extensive scientific evidence was denied by those who chose to believe in phonies. We have come to a point where each of us needs to become educated on how to know what to believe. What might causal criteria look like in thinking about issues facing society today?
Plausibility—Is there any conceivable reason why there is a connection? (e.g. Is it possible that consuming bleach could protect one from a deadly virus?)
Consistency—Are there consistent connections found by different people in different places? (e.g. This is often the case when a prominent person makes a claim that no one else can verify.)
Other Possibilities—Are there any other likely connections that might be present? (e.g. This is at the heart of global warming debates.)
Scientific Rationale—Does the connection have a developed (or developing) scientific theory that provides an explanation? (e.g. This is misinformation that often accompanies online games that claim to strengthen your brain.)
Generality—Does the connection exist in many different situations rather than an isolated case? (e.g. A generalization of some tragic situation can be projected to a broad range of situations where there is no evidence of this.)
Bias Projection—Does the connection play upon people’s prejudices or biases? Often these casual connections are totally fictitious to stoke fears. (e.g. This is prevalent in many of the immigration issues.)
Causality is like the picture puzzle: Where’s Waldo? Waldo is hidden among a mass of people and the challenge is to find him. When he is found, it just seems so obvious that you wonder why it took so long to identify him. That’s the case with causality. When a mistaken causal connection is identified, you can often feel embarrassed that you didn’t see how wrong you were.
Unfortunately, we seem to have become a society that can no longer critically think or care about the truth of information. Have we become blind to the truth or is truth just another one of those things to divide us?
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“There is a price to pay for speaking the truth. There is a bigger price for living a lie.” – Colonel West